где это на сайте "американской разведки"? а то что-то переход из этой "статейки" не работает.
Видимо, вам не доверяют американцы. Все переходы работают.
В секрете от американцев (не подставьте меня!) дам Вам прямую ссылку на доклад и даже процитирую пункт, касающийся отношений между рассеей и Украиной.
Тільки зареєстровані користувачі бачать весь контент у цьому розділі
"Russia and Its Neighbors
The Kremlin will seek to maintain and, where possible, expand its influence throughout the former Soviet
Union countries, which it asserts are within its sphere of influence.
We assess that a major offensive by either Ukraine or Russian proxy forces is operationally feasible
but unlikely in 2019, unless one side perceives the other is seriously challenging the status quo.
Bilateral tensions will continue to rise in the Black and Azov Seas as each side asserts its sovereignty
and naval capabilities. Russia will continue its military, political, and economic destabilization
campaign against Ukraine to try to stymie Kyiv’s efforts to integrate with the EU and strengthen ties
to NATO. Russia’s interception of Ukrainian ships in the Kerch Strait and detention of the ships’
sailors in November 2018 demonstrates Russia’s willingness to limit Ukrainian freedom of
navigation in the area and exert political pressure on the country’s leadership, particularly in
advance of Ukraine’s elections this year.
Ukraine will hold a presidential election in March 2019 and legislative elections in the fall. The
large field of presidential candidates, high levels of distrust in political elites, and lack of a clear
frontrunner may provide Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko’s rivals, as well as lesser
known candidates and political newcomers, an opportunity to appeal to the largely undecided
Ukrainian electorate.
Russia is taking steps to influence these elections, applying a range of tools to exert influence
and exploit Kyiv’s fragile economy, widespread corruption, cyber vulnerabilities, and public
discontent in hopes of ousting Poroshenko and bringing to power a less anti-Russia parliament.
The ruling coalition of Moldova, Ukaraine’s neighbor, is focused on maintaining power in the
legislative election planned for February 2019 and probably will seek to limit Russian influence and
preserve a veneer of commitment to EU integration.
Tension between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-Karabakh region remains a potential
source for a large-scale military conflict that might draw in Russia.
Russia will continue pressing Central Asia’s leaders to support Russian-led economic and security
initiatives and reduce engagement with Washington. At the same time, China probably will
continue to expand its outreach to Central Asia, largely to promote economic initiatives because of
Beijing’s concern that regional instability could undermine China’s economic interests and create a
permissive environment for extremists. Uzbekistan’s political opening under President Shavkat
Mirziyoyev will improve prospects for intraregional cooperation, but poor governance and
vulnerable economics will raise the risk of radicalization..."(С)
