The pace and magnitude of that shrinkage, however, is very much up for discussion. Based on recent experience, it is entirely possible that Russia’s natural decrease will be kept at a level that can be balanced by labor migration from former Soviet Republics in Central Asia. Migration obviously brings its own set of challenges, many of them quite serious. But the challenges of integrating guest workers are very different from those associated with a “demographic death spiral.”
The fact that Russia is going to rely on migration to maintain its population actually makes it very similar to developed Western countries, precisely none of which have a total fertility rate sufficient for population growth. Rather than being a bizarre outlier, an apocalyptic landscape of empty villages, old women, and drunks, Russia is actually dealing with demographic challenges that are virtually identical to those facing the rest of Europe.
So, to summarize, Russia’s natural growth in 2013 doesn’t mean that everything is fine and that the country’s demographic crisis has been “solved.” Russia will be dealing with demographic tensions for the foreseeable future. However, Russia’s experience over the past 8 years does strongly suggest that it is not caught in a ”death spiral” and that its future trajectory is up for debate. This might not sound particularly radical, but it is compared to the conventional wisdom which amounts to “the country is dying out and going to be taken over by the Chinese.” Whether you love them or hate them the Russians are going to be around for awhile
